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European Ageing in Focus : Dealing with Pension and Budgetary Risks

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1 Introduction: The Position of the Netherlands in an Ageing \\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\nEurope . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 1.1 The Netherlands in an Exceptional Position . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 1.1.1 An Ageing But Still Relatively Young Country . . . . . . . . . 2\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 1.1.2 A Country with a Special Pension System . . . . . . . . . . . . 3\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 1.2 Ageing in Other EU Countries Affects the Netherlands . . . . . . . . 5\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 1.3 Research Question and Scope . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\nReferences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 2 Pension Dilemmas in an Ageing Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 2.1 Domestic Policy Options for Ageing Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 2.2 Domestic Policy Options Have External Effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 2.3 Conflict over Pensions at Different Political Levels . . . . . . . . . . . 14\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\nReferences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 3 State of Play and Future Outlook for European Pensions \\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\nand Ageing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 3.1 Great Diversity of Pension Systems in Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 3.2 Pensions Vary Strongly in Generosity Within Europe . . . . . . . . . . 20\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 3.3 Retirement Ages Are Rising But Vary Strongly . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 3.4 Pension Reserves Vary Strongly Between European Countries . . 24\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 3.5 Pensions Place a Large and (Almost Everywhere) Growing \\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\nBurden on Economy and Government Expenditure . . . . . . . . . . . 25\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 3.6 Sustainability Through Planned Pension Austerity? . . . . . . . . . . . 27\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\nReferences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 4 Economic Impact of Pension and Budgetary Risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 4.1 Higher Retirement Ages Positive for Economic Dynamism \\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\nand Earning Capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 4.2 Lower Pensions Depress Spending by a Rapidly Growing \\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\nand Economically Important Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 4.3 A Higher Tax Burden on Working Populations Can Be \\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\nCounterproductive . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 4.4 Displacement of Other Public Services Saps Earning \\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\nCapacity in the Long Term . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 4.5 Rising Public Debts Bring Risks for Financial Stability \\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\nand Lead to Divergence Within the EU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 4.6 Navigating an Economically Unattractive Trade-off . . . . . . . . . . . 43\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\nReferences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 5 Political and Social Impact . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 5.1 Pension Reforms as Tinderbox Issue and as a Creeping Crisis . . . 47\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 5.2 Success and Failure of Socio-Economic Reforms . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 5.3 Forces For and Against Planned European Pension Reforms . . . . 53\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 5.4 European Influences on Reform Policy and Pensions . . . . . . . . . . 56\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 5.5 Internal Pension Reforms Are Vulnerable and Contested—\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\nBut Policy to Strengthen Them Is Possible . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\nReferences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 6 Four Risks for Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 6.1 Four Risks for Europe and for the Netherlands . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 6.1.1 Risk 1: Economic Stagnation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 6.1.2 Risk 2: High Government Debt and European \\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\nDivergence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 6.1.3 Risk 3: Upward Pressure on Inflation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 6.1.4 Risk 4: Social and Political Tensions Within and \\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\nBetween Member States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 6.2 Ageing and the European Balance of Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 6.3 Policy Options for the Netherlands and Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 6.3.1 Resilience to European Ageing Through Higher \\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\nLabour Participation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 6.3.2 Absorbing Economic Risks of European Ageing . . . . . . . 74\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 6.4 Focusing on a Broad European and Dutch Interest . . . . . . . . . . . . 75\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\nReferences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 7 Conclusion and Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 7.1 Ageing Puts Pressure on European Countries and Institutions . . . 82\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 7.2 Three Policy Directions for an Ageing Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 7.3 Policy Direction 1: Anticipate an Ageing EU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 7.4 Policy Direction 2: Steer at EU Level Towards \\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\nAgeing- resilient Socio- economic and Pension Policies . . . . . . . . 85\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 7.5 Policy Direction 3: Protect at the National Level Against \\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\nPossible Negative Consequences of European Ageing . . . . . . . . . 91\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n 7.6 In Conclusion: Ageing Requires Foresight . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\nReferences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n Appendix A . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n Appendix B . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101\\\\\\\\r\\\\\\\\n Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107

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331.252094 Cat e

Publisher

Switzerland : Springer Nature Switzerland., 2026

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vi, 107 hlm. : 24 cm

Language

English

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978-3-032-29056-4

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331.252094

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Subject(s)

Sosial
Ekonomi
Kebijakan

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